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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

What is your predicted polling outcome for the 2024 UK general election

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As the polls open today for numerous council seats in England, Police and Crime Commissioners, and some Regional Mayors, this is likely to be the last big electoral test for Sunak before a General Election.

I personally think that it's quite sad that Westminster politics dominates so many decisions at these kinds of elections. I've known councillors and it's often quite a thankless job where any good work you put it can often be ignored in favour of national politics. I also emailed all 4 of my PCC candidates (no mayoral or local elections here) with some serious issues about how I felt our local force is letting me and people I work with down, and only the Conservative incumbent bothered to respond and was actually quite attentive. The rest just have "vote for me because I'm not a Tory" and questionable guff about "we'll put X number of police on the beat" kind of stuff without actually setting out the detailed policy information I was looking for. Very disappointing.

Interestingly, Andy Street and Ben Houchen seem to be purposely avoiding connections with the governing party they members of and have enlisted Boris Johnson to endorse them! Johnson has backed the candidates by appealing for voters to "forget" about the government when making their decision today. I've been on Street's website and there's no reference to Sunak, he's clearly distancing himself from mentioning that he's a Conservative, and he's adopted the colour green instead of Tory blue.




Tomorrow's results will be interesting with a national poll merely months away. I think talk about leadership challenges is nonsense, and I don't think we'll see a General Election called before the autumn or very late summer at the very least. But it could put Sunak under pressure to rip the plaster off quicker if hanging on is doing the wider party more damage, with defections, step downs and active distancing becoming rife.
 
I think there room be a very very low turnout today. We had cards through to vote for the police commissioner but fat chance of me going out to vote for that. Police? What are they again?
 
Ok, so we all know that voter ID is mandatory in order to be able to vote. Who do we think forgot to have an appropriate form of voter ID and got turned away before they managed to find the right stuff and cast their vote? Yup. It was the person under whose leadership saw the introduction of voter ID legislation - Boris Johnson himself.
 
Ok, so we all know that voter ID is mandatory in order to be able to vote. Who do we think forgot to have an appropriate form of voter ID and got turned away before they managed to find the right stuff and cast their vote? Yup. It was the person under whose leadership saw the introduction of voter ID legislation - Boris Johnson himself.
Very on brand for him to be caught out by a law he introduced.

I'm not even sure what the point of the Police and Crime Commissioner is. We don't vote for the head of the hospitals or education or transport, and nor should we.
Totally agree. We have Mayoral elections in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire for the first time today (confusingly for an East Midlands mayor, even though it wont include Lincolnshire, Rutland, Leicestershire and Northamptonshire), so we voted for both, otherwise I don't think we'd have bothered.

I think there room be a very very low turnout today.

Good prediction I think. When we visited our polling station at lunchtime they'd issued a whopping 60 ballot papers so far.
 
At least it's not a Dan dryer.

As this isn't the tavern I also have to actually contribute something vaguely relevant. With that in mind, PCC elections really seem a pointless waste of effort as practically no-one cares. It's the only election today in my area so naturally I haven't bothered participating, though I was tempted to go and just spoil the ballot, thereby wasting my own time to complain about how much of a waste of time it is. I possibly could have made the point that such a position should be appointed on merit rather than though a public vote but like 99% of the population i just don't care enough to go out and have my say
 
Tories losing the one by-election with a 26% swing is glorious.

They'll have another leadership contest before an election at this rate.
 
Tories are absolutely cooked, absolutely deserved as well.

Shame, Khan looks like he will win in London though he's a terrible mayor and complete egomaniac
 
I'm convinced Lighter water Valley is being run by Trotters independent traders

What’s he done that is terrible?
He's a complete egomaniac who's only in it for himself. He's more interested in posturing than sorting out genuine problems. His record on crime is terrible and Ulez is nothing more than a way of plugging the funding black hole for TFL. Id rather vote for count binface
 
He's a complete egomaniac who's only in it for himself. He's more interested in posturing than sorting out genuine problems. His record on crime is terrible and Ulez is nothing more than a way of plugging the funding black hole for TFL. Id rather vote for count binface

You have said he is an egomaniac twice without giving an example.

The Met is the only police force with direct control from the Home Secretary as well as the mayor and the conservative government cut funding to all police forces meaning crime is up across the country not just London (government figures showing a reduction in crime is because they stopped counting fraud in the crime stats).

ULEZ was a Boris Johnson plan when he was Mayor that the government insisted London implement in order to get its covid funding and doesn’t make all that much money as very few vehicles qualify for it.

So again what policy has Khan independently implemented that you have issue with? And please do provide an example of his egomania 😊
 
I want to point out that I'm not affiliated with any political party first and formost.

Khan is partly responsible for policing in London, if he wasn't then what's the point in a Mayor. How has he actually improved anything in his time as Mayor of London? Crime is out of control and he has to take some of the blame.

Not interested in debating Johnson he's been and gone and yes he introduced ULEZ however Khan vastly expanded it so he can rinse motorists to plug the TFL funding gap. It's never about clean air. He did if for the money and to make himself look good.

Andy Burnham has done a far better job in Manchester
 
He did if for the money and to make himself look good.
The money being generated is minimal and as he's been hounded in the press and villanised, I'm not entirely too sure why you think he's introduced the ULEZ expansion to make himself look good? Why introduce such a controversial policy, which you know is going to alienate people, if you want to make yourself look good? Instead you'd give out free ice cream, or I don't know, build a cable car that goes from nowhere to nowhere, or spend tens of millions on consultancy fees for a garden bridge (that never gets built). You'd do soft policy that doesn't really matter and isn't politically charged.

In his time in office he's delivered the Night Tube, the Superloop and Elizabeth Line (which span out of control under Boris's regime), as well as extensions to the Northern Line and Overground.

In a similar time frame Andy Street, a Conservative Mayor for the West Midlands, has introduced a Clean Air Zone in Birmingham, but no one really appears to give much of a shit about in terms of fury. Also, the Conservatives appear to really enjoy introducing clean air zones.

The extension of ULEZ is working exactly as intended. It's about putting you off of driving a polluting car, it's not about making money. It doesn't make any money. It's nudge economics. If it's stopped you from driving, great! Got a car which could have fallen foul of the charges? That's ok, there was a scheme to help you replace your car. Not impacted by it at all? Then, politely, why the fuck do you care?

Public transport in London is great, you don't really need to drive. If you do need to drive, kindly get a car which complies with emissions policies.

As for crime stats, London's crime rate is actually lower than the national average and lower than when he took over as Mayor of London. - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-sadiq-khan-really-overseen-a-surge-in-london

We can go round and round arguing about this, but I have a feeling we won't agree on much. You can dislike a candidate for their policies, but please do be specific. If you dislike a candidate because of osmosis, soaking up hatred from right-wing outlets, talk radio, then just say that. "I don't really like Sadiq Khan, I don't know why, I just don't". No need to make stuff up, or go for personal attacks on someone's character without evidence.

🪿
 
@GooseOnTheLoose if we really cared about clean air the cars in question would be banned altogether but that doesn't make any money for TFL. I don't think this will be the end of it either I'm sure if he could charge motorist per mile he would do.

You are correct in assuming we don't agree on this issue. I think he's been awful during his tenure but here's to another 4 years of Khan.

Don't really listen to media options as I make my own mind up and you've made alot of assumptions of me to back up your argument. No party or individual deserves my undying devotion.
 
@GooseOnTheLoose if we really cared about clean air the cars in question would be banned altogether but that doesn't make any money for TFL. I don't think this will be the end of it either I'm sure if he could charge motorist per mile he would do.

You are correct in assuming we don't agree on this issue. I think he's been awful during his tenure but here's to another 4 years of Khan.

Don't really listen to media options as I make my own mind up and you've made alot of assumptions of me to back up your argument. No party or individual deserves my undying devotion.
With respect, whatever you might think of ULEZ, you must acknowledge that it's not realistic to completely ban polluting vehicles in one fell swoop.
 
@GooseOnTheLoose if we really cared about clean air the cars in question would be banned altogether but that doesn't make any money for TFL. I don't think this will be the end of it either I'm sure if he could charge motorist per mile he would do.

You are correct in assuming we don't agree on this issue. I think he's been awful during his tenure but here's to another 4 years of Khan.

Don't really listen to media options as I make my own mind up and you've made alot of assumptions of me to back up your argument. No party or individual deserves my undying devotion.

Funnily enough it was Johnson who proposed the per mile charge.
 
Funnily enough it was Johnson who proposed the per mile charge.
He also spent alot of money on a bridge that never got built as well. Good ideas weren't his strong suit.

Given the track record of consecutive mayors I question the need for the position at all
 
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